History repeats itself

No doubt many of you have been watching the unfolding drama of will he or won't he with regard to Tony Blair and when he goes.

A couple of observations.

All Blair has done is confirm that he will have resigned within the next 12 months which he was probably planning to do anyway.

For the next 12 months or sooner there is going to be good old fashioned inter-necine warfare between the Brown camp who only put up with Tony Blair because he could get them electoral victory and the PM's camp who are determined that Brown will continue the New Labour project. They also believe that although Mr Brown was silent - he lit the touchpaper on this current outbreak to force the PM's hand.

If you look at Mr Blair's words it is only a commitment to stand down as leader of the Labour party and not as PM. The phrase depending on the circumstances at the time. Here are his words from the statement

"But I am not going to set a precise date now. I don't think that's right.

I will do that at a future date and I'll do it in the interests of the country and, depending on the circumstances, of the time."

Some very cleverly crafted words that

Of course the person who is smiling the most are Margaret Thatcher and of course David Cameron. At least when the Conservatives ditch a leader it is quick - we now face 6 -12 months of near paralysis in our government while the two camps jockey for position - one for power and one to block. Was this the moment when like Black Wednesday in 1992 we saw the strange death of new Labour.' Only time will tell.....